Obama's Ghosts & 2012
Politics is an unpredictable animal and looking two years into the future is like going to a new galaxy when it comes to elections. No one knows who will be elected president in 2012 or what the political landscape will be like. President Bill Clinton looked like a sure fire one termer two years into his presidency and then came a better economy and Bob Dole as a challenger. However, political legacy can indeed impact a sitting president when it comes to his or her reelection and reelection is not a sure thing –just ask Jimmy Carter. These things being said, Obama seems increasingly like a president who will have a tough time come 2012.
Unlike Bill Clinton who had an uncanny ability to wrestle with the GOP over many issues to his advantage, Obama seems tepid about a fight or about leading on issues important to him. Obama is more inclined to delegate the task of building a political agenda to others much like he did with the health care bill. He does not seem to know how to or like to, turn tables on the GOP in such a way as to get his own agenda passed (not congress’ agenda) like Clinton seemed to be so well versed in doing. After all Clinton had a GOP congress in 1994 but his policies fared well for the most part.
Sadly to say, Obama has let congressional Democrats, run over the GOP with their majorities instead of building bridges and making meaningful efforts to reach out. The change many voters wanted in 2008 are lost in the mix. The tea party movement has thrived on this take it all policy by Democrats not to mention the health care bill, the stimulus package and the bailouts that Democrats rushed through congress with their majorities.
Obama’s agenda is not necessarily a terrible one, but rather to say his administration’s approach and his approach is troublesome especially when one looks at 2012. More than likely the 2010 midterms are going to throw control of congress (either both houses or one) to the GOP. If the GOP gets control of all or part of congress like it appears they will, Obama will essentially be “lame duck” until 2012. The GOP will not be too fond of giving Obama much legislative success to crow about in an election two years from now that they desperately want to reclaim.
Obama does not have a lot of legislative victories to comfort him either, at least not at this point. Who can crow about the big bank bailouts or Detroit bailouts or the ballooning of the deficit after the major stimulus bills? Who can crow about another deficit disaster with the healthcare bill that has infuriated a lot of voters along with those other legislative so called accomplishments? Once more, none of these legislative successes had much if any GOP support. What happened to bipartisanship Obama promised?
Republicans will turn Obama’s 2008 argument “more of the same” back on him come 2012 because things in Washington have not changed much while others have changed in ways that infuriate voters, not comfort them with warm fuzzy feelings. Obama is not a warm fuzzy character like Reagan who deflected as much if not more administration negativity with just his smile and folksy manner.
Obama’s only real hope in 2012 is the very real possibility that the GOP will do something politically stupid while in a political fervor, by nominating someone of the likes of moronic and scary Sarah Palin or someone not seasoned for a presidential race like Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. Jindal is not necessarily a bad GOP candidate but he is not quite ready for the national scene. Palin is downright scary to a large number of intelligent people and voters who can see through her empty runaround logic and media stunts. Actually the only really strong candidate that comes to mind for the GOP is Senator John Thune of South Dakota, but even he is a little dry.
Of course, the other reality is that the economy will start to blossom in the next two years and Obama will find some shining moments that will corsage voter frustration and fear much like what happened with Bill Clinton in 1996. The GOP was out to get Clinton from day one after his election and even after his reelection but he always managed to turn the tables and win his battles.
Hopefully, Obama and his people will learn something between now and 2012 from the Clinton history books. But if they fail –it will be the fault of Obama and his people as well as Democrats alike. Democrats and Obama had a real opportunity to affect real change but as yet have not. Today, the voters that tend to decided presidential races are independents and neither party can claim a monopoly of them. If Democrats are smart, they will learn from their defeats coming this November and most importantly maybe Obama will too.
Another GOP president would undoubtedly turn the country further backwards given the libertarian and conservative extremists who control Republican politics these days. But then, Obama does admittedly, need to learn how to lead and how to make meaningful efforts to be more bipartisan and demand that members of congress do the same. Nothing changes with a stalemate. That’s the root of all evil today in DC. Obama was elected on the platform of change, now Obama needs to change himself.
